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Martingale Betting System

MARTINGALE BETTING SYSTEM

The majority of you readers who are experienced gamblers, have heard of the Martingale betting system. However, for those of you who haven’t heard about this system, it is first and foremost a common and well-known betting system which is commonly used in Roulette and BlackJack. I’ve personally used this system a whole lot. The problem with the Martingale betting system is that you are in need of a rather big wallet, and the risks are comparatively large. Sure, you might not believe that the card-color red will show up ten times in a row, but it has happened, and it will happen. The likelihood of that happening is obviously small, but your wallet won’t be thanking you if this were to happen.

The Martingale betting system involves doubling your wager when loosing. For example, you start by placing 10 SEK on black. If a red shows up next, you double once again, and place another 20 SEK on black. Was the next card also red? If a red card shows up again, you place another 40 SEK on black and so on. This means that if the color black was to show up next, you’ve won 40 SEK, but only lost 30 SEK.

The problem is that neither a land-based or an online casino have unlimited wagers. There is always a certain span that you have to take into account, which means that you can’t double your wager every single time. For instance, at Leovegas, you can play with the minimum wager of 10 SEK and the maximum wager of approximately 40 000 SEK. This would give us the following numbers:

Example:

  1. 10kr
  2. 20kr
  3. 40kr
  4. 80kr
  5. 160kr
  6. 320kr
  7. 640kr
  8. 1280kr
  9. 2560kr
  10. 5120kr
  11. 240kr
  12. 480kr
  13. 000kr

 

In other words, you can afford to loose twelve times in a row. However, you have to win the 13:th round to gain profit. Additionally, you will need to have at least 80 950 SEK at hand. You can win 10 SEK per round. However, if you really have 80 950 SEK at hand, there are wiser investments out there.

You can definitely also play with a smaller wagering budget. I used this method as a youngster and I gained some good profit, however, it was really time-consuming. Let’s say that you limit yourself to playing only 10 rounds, which means that you will have to win on the 10:th round to remain profitable. If this is the case, you will only need about 10 230 SEK.

Let’s assume that your goal is to earn double the amount of your monthly wager, and you’ll be playing every day. This means that you will need to win approximately 330 SEK each and every day. 330 SEK x 30 days = 9900 SEK. Thus, almost doubling your monthly wager.

To make 330 SEK every day, you’ll need to win 33 times. However, this isn’t as easy as it may sound. You can’t just expect to win 33 times in a row, you will also loose multiple times, which makes the process a whole lot more time-consuming.

From personal experience, I can also assure you that you’ll be close to shitting yourself at certain stages of this system. When you’ve lost 6 times in a row, you won’t be so cocky anymore. That is the moment when you realize that everything literally could go to hell.

PROBABILITY

What is the probability of the same color showing up 10 times in a row? First and foremost, you need to understand this: Just because the color red showed up this time, doesn’t mean the chances of a red card showing up next round are any smaller. The probability of you loosing is still 50%.

The probability of the same color showing up 10 times in a row is exactly 0,07%. What does this mean? Do you know your mathematics? Let’s make this simple.

If the probability is 1%, then it will averagely happen once in a 100 rounds.

If the probability is 0.1%, then it will averagely happen once in a 1000 rounds.

If the probability is 0.01%, then it will averagely happen once in a 10000 rounds.

When it comes to using the Martingale system, we are talking about a probability of 0.07%, which means that the probability of the same card showing up 10 times in a row, is exactly 7 times in 10 000 rounds. This also means that the the same color showing up 10 times in a row, should happen when you’ve played about 1429 rounds.

Let’s break it down a little further:

If you win 10SEK on all of these 1428 rounds, then you’ve won 14 280 SEK in total. This also means that you have increased your money with 140%. This would be great, wouldn’t it? Here is the problem. You aren’t going to win each one of these 1428 rounds. You will also loose, which makes your odds drop significantly.

Let’s analyze this slightly deeper:

Let’s count the probability of every round on its own. We all know that there is a 50% chance of the card being red, and a 50% chance of it being black. In the mathematical world, this means that you will win half of the 1428 rounds, but also loose half, if you choose the same color repeatedly.

This equals to: 1428/2 = 714, 714 x SEK = 7140 SEK.

7140SEK is less than you wagered. This means, that if you start with a budget of 10 000SEK, probability indicates that you will end up with a sum of 7140SEK. (7140SEK – 10.000SEK = -2860SEK)

As above written, this is no longer gambling, this is pure probability. However, I used this system a whole lot when I was younger. I stopped because of how time-consuming it was. Do you have the time? Then why the heck not? Give it a try!